What decision model can be used to launch a technology at the right moment?
You must be referring to the famous “Someone is shaking me by the collar, and even though I don’t know every piece of market data I wish I did, my gut says it’s probably O.K. to launch the thing at this point” model. Admittedly not a very precise model, but it’s the only one we know that works.
We’re just saying there’s very little science to timing a tech launch. Sure, you have to conduct research to determine if there’s a hole in the market that your product fills better than anyone else’s. But you will never know exactly how the market will respond, nor will you ever be 100% certain about the viability of your technology. And forget discounted-rate-of-return analyses. With a new technology, those numbers fall somewhere between guessing and wishful thinking.
Which is why your decision “model” comes down to two factors: a positive gut feeling drawn from enough data, and a person in your organization who’s wildly excited to lead the charge. Don’t bet on one or the other. Only bet on both. And even then, understand that timing a new-technology launch basically comes down to a white-knuckled leap of faith. And courage is something no model can quantify.
This question and answer originally appeared in Business Week magazine on April 30, 2007.
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