Our July 2007 column, Who Will Rule the 21st Century?, set off a flurry of debate over our argument that, despite fast growth rates, China and India aren't as stable or adaptable as the U.S.—and won't be anytime soon. We suggest that the US still has significant competitive advantages ranging from economic size to entrepreneurial culture.
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Reader Rants and Raves
► I would love to be as optimistic about the US economy and the American economic leadership that you speak of. I believe it is easy for you to believe that America will continue to be a leader economically, as for the wealthy, and especially the corporate leaders in the country that is exactly what is happening while the middle class is left behind. While you point out great obstacles to China and India in overtaking the US as a dominate economic nation, you will have a hard time convincing any working class American of your views regarding any true leadership in this country.
While our system of political stability, health care, and education does “work” as you point out, the corporate leadership in this country is a downright joke. Meanwhile, the middle class is the economic engine in any great industrialized nation, and America is dismantling the engine by shipping jobs overseas.
Until the CEOs of this country are Experts in the industries they run, until they are held accountable in direct proportion to their salary, until they earn the respect of all the employees from the janitor to the VP, until that time comes, America will only lead China and India by default, and by those countries’ own inability to build a truly powerful and viable middle class.
— R.L.
► 1. People around the world are bringing in money and technology into China so Chinese work and produce for them. They’ve tried other countries, but China is the most receptive and hardworking. Meanwhile, the world becomes lazier. People rest on their rights.
2. Money invested in China creates side benefits of capital gain, big time. More comes in.
3. Chinese do not sit on their laurels, and they are very ambitious to do it on their own and risk if necessary. Money saved is not interest-bearing in banks anyway.
4. Now, everybody has it so good and nobody wants to rock the boat. Peace continues. Chinese are much more tolerant now. The government is doing a very good job economically, 9 years free education, no tax for farmers, etc.
Maybe in 10 to 20 years, China might catch up with USA, not with loans, but with real savings.
— C.L.
► Probably, let us agree, you have a point. However, you have ignored ( by mistake I hope) to mention one real major point, a serious factor, which is pulling the U S economy downwards. American foreign policy. If and when you visit Europe or elsewhere, you have to pretend you are from Canada – please be honest. IBM is not causing it, nor Microsoft. Who does it? An administration that has replaced diplomacy with sheer, crude, Texan style arrogance.
As long as you refuse to highlight this point, as along as you insist this has nothing to do with the economy, you are seeing the trees and missing the forest. It is more than Iraq, it is more than Palestinian issue, it is simply a matter of pragmatism. Refusal to see the writing on the wall.
— M.T.A.
► I have basically the same faith in the American economy that you all do. After a visit to Japan in the ‘80s when everyone was hyped up on the Japanese taking over our economy, I said it was not possible – and it hasn’t happened. I feel somewhat more concerned about China and offer this analogy: Had GE not expanded into finance and entertainment, it would not have achieved the size and influence it has. China’s “partnering”, if you want to call it that, with Africa is a real cause for concern. The way they are proceeding, they will eventually control the majority of the world’s natural resources. The rest of the world had best wake up – or learn Mandarin.
— C.K.
► The United States, China or India? Who will rule? I am starting to believe that it will be a new "blend" of highly networked and web savvy people, probably the young generation who will rule the 21st century. They will come from around the world and not confined to any country or region.
— A.A.
► I would suggest that the European Union is in the best position to overtake the U.S. in this century. Barring any internal political discord or energy issues with Russia, the states of the E.U. are slowly, with a sense of purpose, moving towards political, economic and even military convergence. "Old Europe", as it was derisively called, along with its newer, sometimes friskier peers (e.g.,Poland and the Czech Republic) is rationally and systematically integrating its parts into a huge supra-national production and consumption zone. Quality and consistency are being stressed in manufacturing and services. If not among the older, perhaps more skeptical, citizens of the European Union, certainly among many younger people there is a palpable excitement about being "European" rather than being identified as belonging to a particular ethnic group.
There's no worry about the chauvinistic emotions that drive the soccer frenzy disappearing any time soon, but in such countries as Ireland, there has been a real, substantive change in consciousness. The euro is in a strong position, and possibly partly because of the negative sentiment concerning the U.S. entry into Iraq as a strategic mistake in the long-term war on terrorism, the E.U. is seen politically as a more stable leader in the coming century by many. I would not discount the possibility of the E.U. gradually emerging as the dominant force of the 21st century in many respects.
— R.G.
► Your supposition about the US maintaining our economic leadership in the 21st century excludes a key variable: foreign policy. In today’s global environment I would argue that foreign policy plays a much bigger part in a nation’s position on the global stage than anything else. As you know it was not economic expansion by their competing contemporaries the brought the Roman, Ottoman and British empires to their collective knees; it was their ignorance and inability to adapt to a changing global mindset, which increasingly grew and continues to grow anti-imperialistic. Given our current global image the issue is not the accuracy of this perception but the perception itself. India and China do not have that problem.
In addition, indeed (as Valley insiders like to boast) we still have the “secret sauce” but they have numbers on their side and no established wealth to protect. And finally, one last point. It was Gururaj Deshpande, one of the most prolific entrepreneurs of our day that once told me: “It is good not to know what you cannot do”, which is another way of saying that ignorance is actually an asset. As an entrepreneur, I will take on anyone, anywhere, anytime except for ignorance especially if it is innumerable. To maintain our position we need to get outside of our comfort zone; you can help us by encouraging us to do so.
— B.B.
► There are only a handful of U. S. industries that still dominate the world market (e.g., defense and pharmaceutical). In order to maintain the dominance, U. S. needs to focus on and create technology based industries and not cost-based industries due to abundance of human power in China and India. But the sad fact is that since a lot of technology based jobs are being outsourced overseas, we are forced to let go skilled U.S. workforce that can innovate. With the opportunity t work on high-tech jobs, China and India will gradually be able to innovate and compete with us in those area, too. In my opinion, outsourcing of technology based jobs to China and India is a slow bleeding process that will eventually kill the U. S. dominance in the world. But there seems to be no way to stop this outflow, and I feel very sad about this.
— D.W.
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